Oahu Real Estate Update

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with September 2006 Statistics

Published October 2006

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales PRICE for a single family home that closed in September was $620,000  Down a bit from August’s $635K. One year ago (September 2005) the median was $615,000. The month of “crossover” where our median is lower this year than last is coming soon.  If you are thinking of selling or buying, it’s a good time to do that!

NUMBER of single-family home that CLOSED ESCROW last month was 359 last month. HIGHER than the month before at 351… compared to July’s 379, June’s 368, May’s 374.  September 2005 there were 448 sales.

Condos sold in August had a median price of $320,000 compared to August’s $305K, July’s $329K, June’s $310K, May’s $306K.  One year ago the median was $287K.  Still bouncing…

NUMBER of condo sales: There was a steep decline in the number of  Oahu condos closed in September at 481.  August had 580, compared to 498 in July, 641 in June, May’s 605.  Sept last year was 764 closed condo sales.

News in The Stott Team…. Tracey Stott Kelley will take over writing this email each month and you can contact her at Tracey@stott.com  Donna and Mike Stott have taken fabulous jobs with a mainland real estate training company and leave the Team October 20th. Tim, Tracey, George and Mary Lou will take good care of all your real estate needs along with our wonderful Team Staff!

Other News to Note Now: 
Pending Figures came back up again! Looks like Nationwide, we are stabilizing already!  Good news….
http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2006100201?OpenDocument

Waikiki’s Trump Tower is coming in 2009.  We have 19 registrations for clients buying units. If you want to get on the “wait list” for a unit email me right away at: Donna@stott.com

Oahu Total Inventory – September listed only 587 homes added to the inventory compared to 655 in August,  642 in July, 691 June, 688 May, and 590 in April. Still PRETTY CONSISTENT.  Total Inventory is STILL climbing and stands at 2005 for homes. One year ago, that was 1205. Condos new on-market were also down at 813 from August’s 903, July-924, 921-June, 987-May. Every month is a new record and right now we have 2750 condos for sale in September… compared to last year’s 1296. Consitently more condos for sale since June of last year…since April for homes… and still growing. 

If you are a BUYER, there is a LOT to choose from and at great interest rates! Time to shop and buy is NOW! It’s finally a great time to BUY again!

Months of Remaining Inventory –Median went up to 5.71 in houses and went down to 4.7 in condos. Last year same month we had only 2.6 in homes and 1.6 in condos. So, sellers, realize it will take double/triple the time to sell…upper ranges those #’s are much higher. Over $1M in homes was MEDIAN 11.9 months to sell at the current sales rate. In condos over $500K the median time on market is 8.3 months.

Oahu’s Days on Market (DOM) – In September 2005 it took 22 days (median) to sell a home, this month it’s 48. In September 2005 it took 16 days to sell a condo, today it’s 42. So half sell faster and half take LONGER than that. Plan well in advance if you want to sell this year or next…. It will take a lot of time and possibly many price reductions if it does not sell quickly.

If you want the stats for any specific area, simply ask!  Email me at UpdateMe@stott.com
If you are thinking of Buying OR Selling, there is no better time than NOW.

Mahalo for reading our Newsletter!
If you know someone else that should be getting this, let me know!
If you want to be removed,  just hit reply and tell me… I won’t send it if you don’t want it!
And… don’t forget!!  We know great agents EVERYWHERE! Contact us for a referral!
Feel free to forward this to others. Mahalo!

Donna Stott, R, CRS, e-Pro        The Stott Team
Team Coordinator                     254-1515 locally
DonnaStott@stott.com               Toll Free: 1-800-922-6811

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with August 2006 Statistics

Published September 2006 

Hawaii – Oahu  – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales PRICE for a single family home that closed in August was $635,000.  July was $660K, June $639K.  Bouncing around all year. One year ago (Aug 2005) the median was $625,000, so again, my bet is we “crossover” before end of the year on a month where our median is lower this year than last… but it hasn’t happened yet! Still a great time to buy or sell!!

NUMBER of single-family home sales: There were 351 homes CLOSED on Oahu in August compared to July’s 379, June’s 368, May’s 374.  Next month tells the tale: August 2005 there were 455 closings…

Condos sold in August had a median price of $305,000 compared to July’s $329K, June’s $310K, May’s $306K, April’s $296,400, and March’s $312K.  One year ago the median was $282K.  Still bouncing…

"Real Estate News for Oahu" with July 2006 Statistics

Published August 2006 

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales PRICE for a single family home that closed in July 2006 was $660,000.  Compare to June’s $639,000, May’s $668,300 April’s $615K, March’s $650K. Bouncing back and forth, isn’t it?? One year ago the median was $599,000. Anyone want to make a bet on where the “crossover” occurs?

NUMBER of single-family home sales: There were 379 homes CLOSED in July compared to June’s 368, May’s 374, April’s 332 & March’s 392.  Next month tells the tale: August 2005 there were 455 closings…

Condos sold in JULY had a median price of $329,000 compared to June’s $310K, May’s $306K, April’s $296,400, and March’s $312K.  One year ago the median was $270K. I’m betting more than 4 months to “crossover” in condos.

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with June 2006 Statistics

Published July 2006 

Please check out the Case Study at the bottom of the page – could make you $$$

Hawaii – Oahu– Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales price for a single family home that closed in June 2006 was $639,000.  Compare to May’s $668,300 April’s $615K, March’s $650K. One year ago the median was $593,300. We are getting close to the month that will “cross over” - where this year’s median falls below last year’s. This is the beginning of the end of the up cycle. Also realize, those sales that closed in June were largely made in April. We may see some continued fluctuations but the trend is flattening or down. That said, you CAN still ride this wave and get your equity out before we “cross over” last year’s figures. Let us help you do that! We are studying the market every day and it’s still a good time to buy, so we CAN sell your property! If interest rates rise more (about 6.75% today compared to 5.5% a year ago) and that costs a buyer a LOT. (See Case Study below) --- Could be a large part of the reason we’re flattening.

NOTE TO INVESTOR OWNERS: If you have equity in your property here and do not want to take the RISK of “let’s wait and see” the time to act is NOW.  Let me explain… If you have $500,000 of equity today that you can pull from your investment property, you could be making an income from that of $35,000 per year using a 7% return. The question is… Is YOUR positive cash flow even approaching that? And how is your property’s condition? Are you in need of an expensive re-do?  Another advantage to moving your equity is to buy a newer investment with fewer maintenance costs. Why take the risk of “waiting to see” in this changing market? If you want to know where you can do a 1031 Exchange into property earning 5-8% cash-on-cash returns, WE CAN HELP YOU DO THAT.  To become wealthy in real estate, you must move your money (your equity) when the timing says to do so. It’s time. If the market drops 20% and in my scenario above, you lose $100,000 in equity. If you sell then, your cash-on-cash returns on the $400K remaining (using the same 7%) gives you $28K/yr.  A loss of $7K/yr in income.  So… why wait?

The number of single-family home sales is down 16.4% over last year. CLOSED sales of homes in June was 368. Our May sales (opened escrows) were startlingly lower too… which was also a national and local trend… you will see the results of THOSE stats show up in July and August’s statistics. ***DON’T WAIT FOR THE PUBLIC to get the news and the competition gets even stiffer! *** Compare June’s 368 to May’s 374, April’s 332 and March’s 392.  One year ago that number was 440.

Condos sold in JUNE had a median price of $310K compared to May’s $306K April’s $296,400 and March’s $312K.  One year ago the median was $264K.  Probably a while to “cross over month” in condos.

There were 641 condos closed in JUNE compared to May’s 605, April’s 584 and March’s 696. Nowhere near the high of 831 last August.  Number of condo sales a year ago – 703.  Condos generally follow the housing market so there is still time to get out at peak prices!

Other News to Note: Pending Index tracked by the National Association of Realtors showed nationwide the Pending (in escrow) properties are 10.1% down from same month last year. West part of country is down 12.9% from same month last year.  Interestingly, homes in Canada are UP 14.2% in Canada 2nd quarter over last year. Those Pending numbers will show up in Lower Solds in 2-3 months. Watch for that news then!

Oahu Total Inventory - In June on Oahu, 691 newly listed homes were added to the inventory compared to 688 last month, and 590 in April. Inventory is climbing.  Condos new on-market were 921 compared to 987 last month and 850 condos added in April. Total single family home inventory is at 1836.  Last month that number was 1722. Another signal to SELL NOW.  The previous cycle’s highest number I have a record for is 1613 in May 2001, which we are WAY over.   Condos were at 2582 in June compared to last month’s 2413.

NOTE: Those figures compare with last year this same month of only 879 homes and 988 condos on the market, or way over double last year’s inventory. Makes things MUCH better for Buyers in this market compared with last year!  Supply and Demand changing...

Months of Remaining Inventory – Median is now at 4.9 in houses and 4.3 in condos. Last year same month we had only 2.4 in homes and 1.4 in condos. So it takes more than double the amount of time to sell, on average. For upper ranges those #’s are much higher. Over $1M in homes is 10.7 months. In condos over $500K it’s 8.8 months.

Oahu’s Days on Market (DOM) - June houses came in at 50 DOM median. For condos that is 39 compared to 38 last month and 32 the month before. A year ago it was 15 for houses and only 16 for condos. 

If you want the stats for any specific area, simply ask!  Email me at Donna@stott.com

Case Study: A Buyer mortgaged $1M last year about this time and obtained a 5.5% interest rate with a PI payment of about $5650/mo. If that buyer wanted that SAME payment this year, they could only afford to mortgage $876,317 at today’s 6.75%.  That’s right… Assuming buyers can afford what they could last year on a monthly basis, they can’t afford the same house price that they could last year. In fact, in the example I gave above, they can only afford 87.6% of last year’s prices.  That means a house worth $1M last year may only worth $876K today assuming the buyer can afford the same per month. Some experts are saying the rate could go to 7 or 7.5 by end of this year.  That could mean a further decline in prices here in Hawaii due to the large average prices.

If you are thinking of selling, there is no better time than NOW. Getting your equity out of your home or investment now is your best way to insure that you keep that equity.  Let us know if you want us to spend the time to analyze what your property is worth now, please let us know.  Or if you want to buy, do it now while inventory is high and before the rates rise again!  Email me at: Donna@stott.com

Mahalo for reading our Newsletter!
If you know someone else that should be getting this, let me know!
If you want to be removed,  just hit reply and tell me… I won’t send it if you don’t want it!
And… don’t forget!!  We know great agents EVERYWHERE! Contact us for a referral!
Feel free to forward this to others. Mahalo!

Donna Stott, R, CRS, e-Pro      The Stott Team
Team Coordinator                   254-1515 locally
DonnaStott@stott.com            Toll Free: 1-800-922-6811
http://www.stott.com

"Real Estate News for Oahu" with May Statistics

Published June 2006 

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales price for a single family home that closed in May 2006 was $668,300.  Compare to April’s $615K, March’s $650K. One year ago the median was $610K.  An economist we talked to recently said the median will go up for a while, even though the market is flattening and even dropping in the upper price ranges, due to rising prices in the lower end to come up to the median. In Kailua for example, prices dropped 6.5% first quarter of 2006 to first quarter 2005. So, homes priced in the lower half of the market may still be rising while the upper market is coming down.

The # of sales of homes in May was 374.  Compare to April’s 332 and March’s 392.  One year ago that number was 366, which was a low month last year.

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with April 2006 Statistics

Published May 2006

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales price for a single family home that closed in April 2006 was $615,000.  Compare to February’s $613,500 and March’s record high of $650K. One year ago the median was $545K.

The # of sales of homes in April was 332.  Compare to March’s 392 homes.  One year ago that number was 418.  21% fewer sales this year.

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with March 2006 Statistics

Published April 2006

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales price for a single family home that closed in MARCH was $650,000. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH.  Compare to February’s $613,500. This compares to March 2005’s median of $550,000. The # of sales of homes also jumped dramatically in March… to 392 homes.  377 sold in March one year ago.  Do I think these prices will last? Not based on the inventory rising, days on market and # of price reductions occurring. This may be the peak month for single-family home prices for a while. Note that these were sales made in January for the most part. I think we will see the coming months will bring some lower prices unless they are swayed by several new developments that sold up to a year ago finally closing escrow. We’ll have to wait and see!

"Real Estate News for Oahu" with February 2006 Statistics

Published March 2006

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Oahu Median sales price for a single family home that closed in February was $613,500, slightly down from January’s $615,000. Inventory is growing dramatically (see below). It’s still a high median price compared to February 2005’s $525,500. The # of sales of homes was only 248 last month… 303 homes sold in January.

Oahu Condos median price of $315,000 compares to January’s $295K. Condo market still strong, especially Windward. See Days on market below…  487 condos closed last month compared to January’s 504. Numbers of sales keep dropping.

“Real Estate News for Oahu” with January 2006 Statistics

Reporting February 2006

Hawaii – Oahu – Real Estate Update
Fifth month in a row of lower numbers of sales.  While Oahu Median sales price for a single family home took a hop up to $615,000 in January from $610,000 in December, it doesn’t mean much without the demand to hold it up.  Inventory is growing dramatically (see below). It’s still a high median price compared to January 2005’s $505K but I’m not impressed. It does show you have a bit of time though if you are thinking of selling. We’re at that peak but time may be running out. The # of sales of homes fell to 303 homes sold in January compared to 333 last year and 342 the year before and is the lowest sales month since Feb last year, which historically is a bad sales month. Anxious to see how Feb turns out THIS year… If you want to know what YOUR house is worth, please e-mail us at: HomeValue@stott.com

Quick Post for You:

Report by CNNMoney.com on what markets in the US are overvalued at this time and by how much. Honolulu shows 31% over but it’s not bad compared to some that show as much as 84% overpriced!!!
Worth your time to take a look: http://tinyurl.com/cdb9u

Donna Stott